100 bets in 30 days

Is profitable sports betting still possible in Germany?

Finn Hebbecker

@finnhebbeckerqtm5lt4v

Betting tax, limits and restricted markets: plenty of people are convinced sports betting in Germany is no longer worth it. I am putting that to the test. 100 bets in 30 days, exclusively at five selected bookmakers on the German market. Every bet is shared in my Telegram group the moment it is placed, and documented here in full — odds, closing line and result.

100 bets. No cherry-picking after the fact. Full transparency.

Follow all 100 bets live

Every bet is posted in my Telegram group the moment it is placed.

19 / 100 betsday 8 of 30

Net result

+€430.40

After all betting costs

before tax+€441.00

betting tax−€10.60

Net ROI

+22.5%

+23.2% before tax

Average CLV

+6.43%

19 measured

Beat the closing line

95%

of measured bets

Won / Lost

12 / 7

63% win rate

Total stakes

€1,900.00

€1,900.00 settled

Open bets

of 19

Average odds

1.92

Profit is not the same as quality. Over 100 bets the result can swing a long way. That is why I also document Closing Line Value (CLV): it shows whether the odds I took were better than the closing price that followed.

Running profit

netbefore taxexpected (from CLV)

Results by bookmaker

Bookmaker	Bets	CLV	Net result	Net ROI
Winamax	10	+7.52%	+€352.00	+35.2%
Bet365	5	+4.18%	+€269.00	+53.8%
Interwetten5.3%	2	+7.49%	+€9.40	+4.5%
Tipico	2	+5.57%	−€200.00	−100.0%
Betano5.3%	0	—	€0.00	—

All bets19

	Placed	Event	Pick	Bookmaker	Odds	Closing odds	CLV	Stake	Result	Net P&L
#001	Oct 09, 01:40 PM	Leicester vs Gloucester	Unter 58.5	Tipico	1.82	1.75	+4.00%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#002	Oct 09, 05:48 PM	Etoile Carouge @ Yverdon-Sport	1X2 · Yverdon-Sport	Winamax	1.88	1.81	+4.04%	€100.00	Won	+€88.00
#003	Oct 09, 06:12 PM	Glasgow Warriors @ Connacht	Under 46.5	Winamax	1.82	1.65	+10.30%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#004	Oct 10, 12:41 AM	Baskets Bonn @ Medipolis SC Jena	Asian Handicap -11.5 · Baskets Bonn −11.5	Winamax	1.89	1.84	+2.66%	€100.00	Won	+€89.00
#005	Oct 10, 12:05 PM	Stormers vs sharks	Under 50.5	Winamax	1.76	1.74	+1.15%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#006	Oct 10, 12:15 PM	Leyma Basquet Coruna @ Zaragoza	Moneyline · Zaragoza	Bet365	1.81	1.63	+11.18%	€100.00	Won	+€81.00
#007	Oct 10, 12:54 PM	Brose Bamberg @ Mitteldeutscher BC	Asian Handicap -4.5 · Mitteldeutscher BC +4.5	Interwetten	2.20	2.00	+10.00%	€100.00	Won	+€114.70
#008	Oct 10, 01:03 PM	Augsburg @ Bayern Munich	Asian Handicap +2.5 · Bayern Munich −2.5	Interwetten	2.05	1.95	+4.97%	€100.00	Lost	−€105.30
#009	Oct 11, 01:09 PM	Caracas @ Zamora	1H · Asian Handicap -0.5 · Caracas −0.5	Winamax	1.98	1.85	+6.85%	€100.00	Won	+€98.00
#010	Oct 11, 01:23 PM	Exeter Chiefs @ Newcastle Red Bulls	Under 60.5	Tipico	1.80	1.68	+7.14%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#011	Oct 11, 06:56 PM	Patronato @ Guemes	Asian Handicap -1.5 · Patronato −1.5	Winamax	2.10	2.02	+4.01%	€100.00	Won	+€110.00
#012	Oct 11, 08:47 PM	Lobos Plateados @ Freseros de Irapuato	Total 174.5 · Over 174.5	Winamax	1.95	1.81	+7.56%	€100.00	Won	+€95.00
#013	Oct 13, 01:36 PM	BC Lietkabelis Panevezys @ PAOK BC	Total 165.5 · Under 165.5	Winamax	1.92	1.85	+3.67%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#014	Oct 13, 01:51 PM	Pallacanestro Varese @ Peristeri BC	Asian Handicap -6.5 · Peristeri BC +6.5	Bet365	1.80	1.80	−0.22%	€100.00	Won	+€80.00
#015	Oct 13, 02:34 PM	Notts County @ Nottingham Forest U21	1X2 · Notts County	Winamax	1.86	1.59	+17.20%	€100.00	Won	+€86.00
#016	Oct 13, 02:48 PM	KK Partizan Belgrade @ Panathinaikos BC	Asian Handicap +6.5 · KK Partizan Belgrade +6.5	Bet365	1.82	1.75	+3.94%	€100.00	Lost	−€100.00
#017	Oct 13, 03:15 PM	Neptunas vs Bourg	Home	Bet365	2.30	2.25	+2.22%	€100.00	Won	+€130.00
#018	Oct 14, 01:26 PM	Brose Bamberg @ UCAM Murcia	Asian Handicap +5.5 · UCAM Murcia −5.5	Bet365	1.78	1.72	+3.79%	€100.00	Won	+€78.00
#019	Oct 14, 03:43 PM	CS Universitatea Craiova @ Sporting Cp	Asian Handicap -4.5 · Sporting Cp +4.5	Winamax	1.86	1.58	+17.72%	€100.00	Won	+€86.00

Follow all 100 bets live

Every bet is posted in my Telegram group the moment it is placed.